Recommendations & conclusions

The findings of this report have significant implications for policymakers, justice system leaders, and practitioners.

Gray and white handheld megaphone for loud public announcements

Young person in gray hoodie sitting with contemplative expression

Showing what is possible

This research offers new evidence and practical solutions to support policymakers, practitioners, the public and people with lived experience in building a smarter, more compassionate approach: one that reduces the strain on services, lowers costs, and most importantly, improved outcomes for individuals.

With upcoming changes from the May 2025 Sentencing Review and the July 2025 Leveson Review, there will be fewer short prison sentences, earlier releases, and greater reliance on community sentences and diversion. These shifts will require a rethink of how risk is managed, support is delivered, and resources are prioritised across probation and wider public services.

Building on the strengths of those that have navigated the revolving door

This research shows that tackling the revolving door of reoffending does not require radical new services or large-scale investment. Instead, smarter implementation of existing good practice is key - approaches that harness the strengths and lived experience of people who have navigated the revolving door, involving them in designing and delivering support, and empowering them to inspire and engage others. By working in partnership and focusing on person-centred, evidence-backed solutions, services can break cycles of reoffending and deliver better outcomes for individuals and communities alike.

Use joined-up public sector data to target cohorts and individuals

Learn more

Use joined-up public sector data to target cohorts and individuals

Invest in solutions to join up existing public sector data sets and mine the wealth of untapped information available in unstructured data.
Coproduce information governance principles with people with lived experience.

Why it matters

Joining up data gives a complete view of individuals and cohorts, helping services spot escalating needs, match interventions, and make smarter decisions. It can prevent unnecessary recalls to prison, reduce pressure on staff across police, courts, probation, and social services, and save millions of hours in duplicated effort.

From the user perspective

People want their story heard once, without repeated re-traumatisation. Better data sharing and coordination - especially between social services, police, and probation - can intervene earlier and improve outcomes. Trust is key: lived experience must shape what data is shared, how, and with whom.

Read more in the report

Reinvest savings that flow from this into relational work that only humans can do

Learn more

Reinvest savings that flow from this into relational work that only humans can do

Reinvest some of the cost savings from better data sharing and smart use of AI in the justice system workforce, notably probation.

Why it matters‍

Automating routine tasks frees up staff to focus on the human interactions that make the real difference. Probation officers, for example, spend over 35% of their day on administrative work that could be automated, limiting time for supervision, support, and relationship-building.

From the user perspective

Interviewees consistently highlight the turning points in their lives when someone recognised their potential. Savings from improved data sharing and AI should be reinvested to reduce caseloads, waiting times, and staff burnout, enabling more trauma-informed, relational, multi-agency support – and what people in the revolving door cohort need to succeed.

Read more in the report

Divert people in the revolving door cohort at the earliest opportunity

Learn more

Divert people in the revolving door cohort at the earliest opportunity

Design a national cross-departmental framework for diversion from every stage of the justice system, including pre-arrest diversion.
Review the requirement for an admission of guilt for out of court disposals to remove this barrier to their use.
Formally recognise Outcome 22 as a legitimate and effective resolution and incentivise and support police to use it more widely.
Review Liaison and Diversion services with a view to provide additional investment to enable them to work effectively with people whose repeat offending is driven by unmet health and social needs.

Why it matters

Early interventions can break the cycle of offending before it escalates. First contact with the justice system should be a chance to redirect someone onto a positive path, not push them deeper into the revolving door.

Impact

Even conservative estimates suggest diverting just 10% of the revolving door cohort could free up 4,000 probation spaces and prison beds, while reducing the social and economic cost of serious offending by billions. A 2021 evaluation found that Liaison & Diversion services contribute to criminal justice savings of between £13.1 million and £41.5 million. Strengthening diversion at all stages – pre-arrest, Outcome 22, and Liaison & Diversion services – ensures people receive the right support at the right time, reducing reoffending, easing pressure on courts, and improving community safety.

Read more in the report

Expand and strengthen community sentences

Learn more

Expand and strengthen community sentences

Take a targeted approach to sentencing for the revolving door group: a combination of problem-solving courts, comprehensive pre-sentence reports, combined community sentence treatment orders, and a continuous offer of peer support.
Additional investment is needed for community sentences, especially mental health treatment requirements.
There needs to be a substantial increase in the use of combined treatment orders.
Adopt a whole-court approach to training to improve knowledge about and confidence in community sentences.
Produce full pre-sentence reports as standard to place offending and the sentence recommendation in context.

Why it matters

Where diversion isn’t possible, community sentences offer a proven alternative to custody. Done well, they provide trauma-informed, multi-agency support that addresses mental health and substance use, helping individuals break the cycle of reoffending. Combined orders for mental health and substance use are particularly important, as challenges rarely occur in isolation.

Impact

Investing in capacity, quality treatment, and training for sentencers and court staff ensures community sentences are delivered effectively. Problem-solving approaches, like Intensive Supervision Courts, have shown strong results internationally and can reduce reliance on custodial sentences. Full, accurate pre-sentence reports give context to repeat offending and help magistrates make informed decisions, increasing confidence in non-custodial interventions. Overall, strengthening community sentences improves outcomes for individuals, reduces pressure on the justice system, and generates long-term social and economic benefits.

Read more in the report

Invest in peer support

Learn more

Invest in peer support

Integrate peer support into community sentence and post-sentence supervision for the revolving door group to provide continuity of care.
Review and overhaul vetting procedures to remove this critical blocker to peer support.

Why it matters

Peer support connects people with someone who truly understands their experiences and can model change. It’s particularly effective for individuals considered “hard to reach” or “difficult to engage,” making it ideal for the revolving door group. Evidence from liaison and diversion services shows peer support delivers measurable social value, helping people engage with treatment and navigate transitions between services.

Impact

Integrating peer support throughout the justice journey—from community sentences to post-sentence supervision—creates continuity, holistic care, and trauma-informed support. Streamlining vetting processes is essential to ensure peer workers can take up roles without delay, maintain momentum in their own recovery, and deliver consistent, life-changing support to others.

Read more in the report

Train people throughout the system to work with and understand trauma

Learn more

Train people throughout the system to work with and understand trauma

Train frontline staff to work with and understand how trauma manifests.

Why it matters

Many people caught in repeat offending cycles have experienced significant trauma, which can show up as aggression, anger, or hostility. These behaviours are often met with punitive responses, escalating conflict, breaches of conditions, or disengagement from services.

Impact

Trauma-informed training equips staff to respond effectively and empathetically, addressing root causes rather than just symptoms. Delivered by facilitators with lived experience, this approach helps staff understand the “why” behind behaviours, improving engagement and outcomes across police custody, probation, and wider public services.

Read more in the report

Take a place-based approach and make better use of community assets

Learn more

Take a place-based approach and make better use of community assets

Empower local commissioners to work with existing assets, including non-statutory services to meet local need and gaps.
Design and commission services with people that have experience of using those services.

Why it matters

Peer-led and community-based programmes are crucial for people trapped in the revolving door. Local grassroots groups provide connection, purpose, and a sense of belonging that statutory services alone often cannot. A “place-based” approach ensures services are tailored to local needs, funded sustainably, and built in collaboration with people with lived experience.

Impact

This method reduces reliance on crisis interventions and creates more effective, trusted support. Women’s Centres, for example, deliver nearly three times the taxpayer return by offering wrap-around services that cut long-term demands on the justice system, health, housing, and social care. By working with existing local assets, commissioners can close gaps, reduce postcode lotteries, and ensure interventions genuinely meet the needs of the community.

Read more in the report

Multi-partnership work, including further upstream of the justice system

Learn more

Multi-partnership work, including further upstream of the justice system

Take coordinated, early multi-agency support for families and schools to break the pipeline from exclusion to exploitation to prison.

Why it matters

The research shows that many people trapped in the revolving door face challenges that begin early in life, often with missed opportunities for intervention from teachers, social workers, and other professionals. Undiagnosed neurodiversity, school exclusions, and family vulnerabilities are common patterns that, if unaddressed, contribute to later offending.

Impact

Early, coordinated support - through families, schools, and community services - can prevent escalation into the justice system. Programs like SureStart, Young Futures hubs, and community-based NHS centres demonstrate the lasting benefits of investing upstream. Sustainable funding and multi-agency collaboration are key to breaking cycles before they start and ensuring children have the opportunity to thrive.

Read more in the report

Leadership at the highest level

Learn more

Leadership at the highest level

Cabinet Office-level focus is needed to drive accountability and coordinated action across justice, health, housing, and social care.

Why it matters

The revolving door cohort touches multiple public services, including justice, health, social care, education, and housing. Without senior leadership, responsibility risks falling between departments, leaving justice as the system of last resort.

Impact

‍Centralised leadership, similar to the Social Exclusion Unit, would ensure cross-departmental coordination and a holistic response to the needs of this cohort. Examples like Greater Manchester’s “Prevention Demonstrator” show how high-level coordination can wrap public services around communities, prevent social harms, and reduce long-term costs.

Read more in the report

Refining understanding and future focus

Ongoing analysis has sharpened the picture of the revolving door cohort, moving from early estimates of up to 100,000 individuals to a more targeted core group of 29,000–54,000 with the highest levels of unmet need and repeat offending. Focusing on this cohort ensures that interventions are directed where they can have the greatest impact and return on investment for public services.

At the same time, lived experience and service-level insights suggest the true scale of need and cost may be higher than current estimates show. Future work with partners, including the Ministry of Justice, HMPPS, and Greater Manchester Combined Authority will continue to refine understanding and explore the potential to apply this data-driven, person-centred approach to other groups disproportionately affected by the criminal justice system, including women, young adults, and racially minoritised communities.

Smiling older person in winter coat, black and white portrait

Useful links

Lived experience findings

Findings from 20 in-depth interviews with people who have lived through the revolving door of crisis and crime.

Learn more

Smiling middle-aged man in black jacket, black and white portrait

Quantitative findings

Advanced analysis reveals the patterns, unmet needs, and risks driving the revolving door cohort, showing how data can inform smarter, preventative interventions.

Learn more

Young person in striped shirt looking directly at camera in black and white

User journeys

Research revealed clear patterns in the lives of people caught in the revolving door of crime, reflected both in the 20 interviews and in service data.

Learn more

Download the full report

Read more about the research process, key findings, and expert recommendations.

Download the findings

Read the recommendations

Person in beanie sitting on Newton's "Preventing the Revolving Door" report